Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017


Roy Burstein, University of Washington, Seattle
Nathaniel J. Henry, University of Washington, Seattle
Michael L. Collison, University of Washington, Seattle
Laurie B. Marczak, University of Washington, Seattle
Amber Sligar, University of Washington, Seattle
Stefanie Watson, University of Washington, Seattle
Neal Marquez, University of Washington, Seattle
Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Masoumeh Abbasi, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
Foad Abd-Allah, Cairo University
Amir Abdoli, Jahrom University of Medical Science
Mohammad Abdollahi, The Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences (TIPS)
Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Multiple Sclerosis Research Center
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Ministry of Health Saudi Arabia
Michael R.M. Abrigo, Philippine Institute for Development Studies
Dilaram Acharya, Dongguk University, Gyeongju
Oladimeji M. Adebayo, University College Hospital, Ibadan
Victor Adekanmbi, Cardiff University
Davoud Adham, Ardabil University of Medical Sciences
Mahdi Afshari, Zabol University of Medical Sciences
Mohammad Aghaali, Qom University of Medical Sciences and Health Services
Keivan Ahmadi, University of Lincoln
Mehdi Ahmadi, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences
Ehsan Ahmadpour, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Rushdia Ahmed, BRAC University
Chalachew Genet Akal, Bahar Dar University
Joshua O. Akinyemi, University of Ibadan
Fares Alahdab, Mayo Clinic
Noore Alam, Queensland Health
Genet Melak Alamene, Madda Walabu University
Kefyalew Addis Alene, University of Gondar
K. Khatab, Ohio University

Document Type


Publication Date



© 2019, The Author(s). Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.